Wisconsin · Governor · 2026

Wisconsin's biggest counties have the most contested voters, but they're half as common there

In the race for governor between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany, 767,610 Wisconsin voters are in play for both of them, two new PharosGraph audiences available through L2. They're about nine percent of the voters in Dane County and Milwaukee County, against close to 19 percent across the rest of the state.

Wisconsin · Governor 2026, voters in playData week of 15 September 2026

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Audiences

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What you are looking at. Two groups built from the two PharosGraph Persuade audiences for the Wisconsin governor's race, available through L2 in LiveRamp. The amber dots are voters who sit in both audiences, so either David Crowley or Tom Tiffany could still reach them. The muted dots are the rest of the race's movable universe, voters in one of the two audiences but not the other. One dot per 400 voters.

How it is built. Every registered voter in Wisconsin is scored individually. Each candidate's Persuade audience holds voters who sit mid-scale on support and rank high for movability, taken from the most reachable sixty percent of voters in the contest. How much of that pool each audience takes is a setting on the race rather than a measurement of it, so the map shows where these voters are rather than comparing the two audiences by size. These are modeled audiences, not polling. The map draws 2,152,202 of the 2,152,648 voters in these audiences; the other 446 sit in block groups with no boundary on file.

Why these voters, and why now

Dane County and Milwaukee County hold more of Wisconsin's contested voters than any other county, 67,192 and 64,030 of them. These are the voters in play for both David Crowley and Tom Tiffany. But they're only about nine percent of the voters in those two counties, against close to 19 percent across the rest of the state. In Barron County the share is 28.7 percent, and Polk, Sauk, Waupaca and Dunn counties all sit above 23 percent.

Going county by county works against a campaign at both ends. Milwaukee County has 64,030 of these voters, and about thirteen other voters for every one of them. In Barron County, which is far smaller, better than one voter in four is in play for both candidates, and that comes to 9,464 voters. PharosGraph's two Persuade audiences for this race, one for each candidate, have already found them. All 767,610 sit in both audiences, so a campaign can reach each of them directly, wherever they live.

Being in play describes how movable a voter is. It doesn't mean a voter is undecided, and it doesn't predict a vote. These voters do turn out, though. In 2024, 81.8 percent of them voted, against 66.0 percent of all Wisconsin voters, so the work with them is persuasion more than turnout. They lean a little toward homeowners, 53.4 percent against 47.5 statewide, and 31.5 percent of them sit in the $100,000 to $149,999 income band, against 28.0 percent. Their average age is 60, the same as the state's.

The issues they care about won't pick them out. The economy takes up about 19 percent of their issue focus and immigration about 11 percent, and both figures match Wisconsin as a whole. Where they stand on those issues is what sets them apart. On immigration, 41 percent of them sit in the centrist band, against 24 percent of Wisconsin voters, and a similar gap shows up on abortion, climate, taxes and trade. Housing is the exception, since their largest band there is the conservative one. Each band is an audience of its own, so a campaign can match its message on an issue to where these voters stand on it.

Wisconsin's registration closes online and by mail on October 14, and early voting opens on October 20. The one debate between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany is the next night, October 21, on WISN-12 at Marquette University. PharosGraph rescores every registered voter in the country each week and refreshes the audiences each month, so a campaign activating now gets this fall's voters and not a list built in the spring. The two Persuade audiences behind this map, the GOTV audiences for the same race and the five position bands on each issue are all available through L2, in LiveRamp and in L2 DataMapping.

The voters on this map are a PharosGraph audience

PharosGraph scores every registered voter in the country, one voter at a time, on the issues in the news. Those scores are published through L2 Data as audiences that campaigns and agencies activate in LiveRamp or L2 DataMapping, the same way as any other third-party segment.

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Data Marketplace · seller: L2 Data · provider: PharosGraph

On this map

PharosGraph WI Governor 2026 Democratic Persuade

PharosGraph WI Governor 2026 Republican Persuade

Both audiences are drawn from the same reachable universe for the race, and 767,610 voters sit in both of them. How much of that universe each audience takes is a setting on this race, not a measurement of it, so the two are not meant to be compared by size.

Related audiences to look for

The same race

PharosGraph WI Governor 2026 Democratic GOTVSupporters of David Crowley, ranked highest for turnout priority
PharosGraph WI Governor 2026 Republican GOTVSupporters of Tom Tiffany, ranked highest for turnout priority

Wisconsin's Third District

PharosGraph WI Congressional District 3 Democratic PersuadeVoters in play in the Third District. The two Persuade files split them by candidate.
PharosGraph WI Congressional District 3 Republican PersuadeVoters in play in the Third District. The two Persuade files split them by candidate.
PharosGraph WI Congressional District 3 Democratic GOTVThird District supporters ranked highest for turnout priority, split by candidate.
PharosGraph WI Congressional District 3 Republican GOTVThird District supporters ranked highest for turnout priority, split by candidate.

Where these voters stand

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security CentristThe band 41 percent of the contested group sits in, against 24 percent statewide
PharosGraph Abortion and Reproductive Rights CentristThe band 43 percent of them sit in, against 26 percent statewide
PharosGraph Climate and Environment CentristThe band 43 percent of them sit in, against 29 percent statewide
PharosGraph Taxes and Property Tax Relief CentristThe band 43 percent of them sit in, against 29 percent statewide
PharosGraph Healthcare and Insurance CentristEach issue also ships four other bands, from progressive to conservative

These are a few of the audiences PharosGraph publishes through L2. The full catalog covers issue focus, issue positions, local community issues, candidates and ballot measures.

See all PharosGraph audiences →