Why these voters, and why now
Every voter has one cost that weighs most on their own budget, and PharosGraph sorts voters by it: housing, healthcare, gas and utilities, childcare or property taxes. In Texas's 34th, close to half of the voters whose main cost is housing are still in play. For voters whose main cost is healthcare it's about a third, and across the whole district it's about four in ten. Cost of living is the top issue in this race, and a voter's main cost goes with whether that voter can still be moved.
These are PharosGraph's Cost of Living Main Driver audiences, one for each cost. PharosGraph also builds two Persuade audiences for each race, one for each candidate, made up of the voters still movable in it. A voter in either one is in play. Of the 118,365 voters in the district whose main cost is housing, 56,863 are in play.
The two groups live in different parts of the district. About seven in ten of the housing voters still in play are in Cameron County. More than half of the healthcare voters still in play are in Nueces County. Voters whose main cost is gas and utilities or childcare sit between the two, each close to the district's rate.
Texas early voting runs through October 30. Vicente Gonzalez, the incumbent, faces Eric Flores in a district that, on its 2026 lines, takes in Cameron, Nueces, Kleberg, Willacy and Kenedy counties. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up. In PharosGraph's weekly read of the race, cost of living has ranked first every week since early August, and healthcare and the uninsured fourth.
The race's Persuade audiences find the voters still open to either candidate. Layering the cost of living audiences on top is precision messaging: they tell a campaign which cost to talk about with each of those voters, housing with some and healthcare with others, so it can tailor by race and voter by voter within the race. PharosGraph ranks these audiences weekly and refreshes them monthly, and the Cost of Living Main Driver audiences and the Persuade and GOTV audiences for the race are available now with L2 DataMapping and in LiveRamp. Campaigns and issue groups with a cost of living message should reach these voters before early voting closes on October 30 and Election Day on November 3.