Texas · U.S. Senate · 2026

In Texas, the voters both Senate campaigns can still win sit in the middle on immigration

3,216,060 Texas voters are in play for both Ken Paxton and James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race. Three in five of them sit in the middle three of five bands on immigration and border security.

Texas · Voters in play for both Senate candidates, by immigration lean Data week of 15 September 2026

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Where they stand on immigration. Click a band to turn it on or off

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What you are looking at

Every Texas voter in both Senate candidates' Persuade audiences, colored by where they stand on immigration and border security. Teal is the progressive end of the scale, grey is centrist and amber is the conservative end. One dot per 600 voters.

How it is built

Every registered voter is scored individually. A voter in play for both candidates sits mid-scale on support in this race and ranks high for movability. Immigration lean places each voter on a five-point scale from progressive to conservative. It measures where a voter stands on the issue, not how much it matters to them, and it isn't a poll or a vote prediction. Dots are placed at random within each voter's census block group, so they show where these voters are concentrated, not where anyone lives.

Where the persuadable voters stand on immigration

Immigration and border security ranks fourth among the issues in our latest weekly read of the U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, and its score has held steady since mid-August. That makes where voters stand on it a useful way to find the voters still in play. Of the 3.2 million Texas voters open to either candidate, 60 percent sit in the middle three bands of PharosGraph's immigration scale: leans progressive, centrist and leans conservative. Those three bands hold 37 percent of all Texas voters.

PharosGraph scores every registered voter one at a time. For each race we track, we sort voters into those firmly behind a candidate, who are worth turning out, and those still open to persuasion. A voter can be open to both candidates. Separately, we place every voter on a five-point scale on immigration and border security, from progressive to conservative. That measures where a voter stands, not how much the issue matters to them. Each band ships with a message matched to it:

ProgressiveImmigrants strengthen our communities and economy: defend Dreamers, create a real path to citizenship, keep families together, and treat people with dignity and due process.

Leans progressiveFix a broken system with a path to citizenship for people who have built lives here, faster legal immigration, and humane, orderly enforcement.

CentristSees a complex issue and weighs both sides by circumstance: wants a secure border and a legal immigration system that works, with compassion for people already contributing here.

Leans conservativeSecure the border and enforce the law first, while keeping legal immigration open for those who follow the rules.

ConservativeBorder security, rule of law, and enforcement first: stop illegal crossings and put American workers and public safety first.

These are the current messages for each band and may change.

The middle of the scale is where persuasion is still possible. Among Texas voters in the centrist band, 36 percent are in play for both candidates, close to twice the 19 percent rate for Texas voters overall.

We also track what a voter's immigration concern is mostly about. In the conservative band, voters whose concern centers on legal immigration and visas are more open than those focused on deportation and enforcement, with 14 percent in play for both candidates against 6 percent.

Monday, October 5 is the last day to register to vote in Texas, and early voting runs October 19 to 30. The two Persuade audiences for this race and the five immigration lean audiences are available now through L2 DataMapping and in LiveRamp, and they refresh monthly. For the Ken Paxton and James Talarico campaigns, the voters in the middle bands of this scale are the ones still open to either side.

The voters on this map are PharosGraph audiences

PharosGraph scores every registered voter in the country, one voter at a time, on the issues in the news. Those scores are published through L2 Data as audiences that campaigns and agencies activate in LiveRamp or L2 DataMapping, the same way as any other third-party segment.

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On this map

PharosGraph TX Senate 2026 Democratic Persuade5,045,067 Texas voters

PharosGraph TX Senate 2026 Republican Persuade5,045,067 Texas voters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Progressive5,846,453 Texas voters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Leans Progressive2,631,062 Texas voters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Centrist1,915,685 Texas voters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Leans Conservative1,709,945 Texas voters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Conservative4,713,746 Texas voters

The voters on the map are in both Persuade audiences for the race, the voters in play for James Talarico and the voters in play for Ken Paxton. The colors come from the five immigration lean audiences, which together cover every Texas voter.

Related audiences to look for

Texas's U.S. Senate race: turnout

PharosGraph TX Senate 2026 Democratic GOTV James Talarico supporters ranked highest for turnout.

PharosGraph TX Senate 2026 Republican GOTV Ken Paxton supporters ranked highest for turnout.

The Persuade audiences for this race are listed above, under On this map.

What the immigration concern is about

PharosGraph Immigration Driven by Legal Immigration and Visas Voters whose immigration concern centers on legal immigration and visas.

PharosGraph Immigration Driven by Deportation and Enforcement Voters whose immigration concern centers on deportation and enforcement.

How much immigration matters

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security Top 10 Percent Salience Voters in the top tenth nationally for focus on immigration.

PharosGraph Immigration and Border Security 10 to 20 Percent Salience The next tenth nationally.

These are a few of the audiences PharosGraph publishes through L2. The full catalog covers issue focus, issue positions, local community issues, candidates and ballot measures.

See all PharosGraph audiences →