Why these voters, and why now
In PharosGraph's weekly read of the race, healthcare and insurance has ranked second in every week but one since late August. Half of the New Hampshire voters most focused on the issue of healthcare access and costs are still in play for Senate, against about four in ten voters statewide. With Election Day on November 3, these are the healthcare voters a campaign still has a chance to move.
PharosGraph builds two Persuade audiences for each race, one for each candidate, made up of the voters still movable in it. A voter in either one is in play. Of the 239,997 New Hampshire voters in the top fifth nationally when it comes to focus on healthcare access and costs, 120,275 are in play for Senate. The rest are in a turnout audience for one of the candidates.
Inside Elections moved the New Hampshire Senate race from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic on October 15. The seat is open, and Chris Pappas faces John E. Sununu. New Hampshire has no in-person early voting, and voters can request an absentee ballot until noon on November 2.
More than half of the healthcare voters still in play live in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. They turned out in 2024 at a higher rate than New Hampshire voters as a whole (82 percent against 73), are younger on average, and are more focused on gun policy and climate.
The Senate race's Persuade audiences find the voters still open to either candidate. Layering the healthcare audiences on top is precision messaging: they tell a campaign which of those voters to talk to about healthcare access and costs, so it can tailor by race and voter by voter within the race. PharosGraph ranks these audiences weekly and refreshes them monthly, and the healthcare salience tiers, the five position bands on healthcare and the Persuade and GOTV audiences for the Senate race are available now with L2 DataMapping and in LiveRamp. Campaigns and issue groups with a healthcare message should reach these voters before absentee requests close at noon on November 2.