Why these voters, and why now
Maine and Nebraska are the only states that award an electoral vote by congressional district, and their 2nd districts often vote differently from the rest of the state. In 2020 and 2024, each district gave its electoral vote to a different presidential candidate than its state did. Both House seats are open this year, and the swing voters in the two districts split the same way: in both, the largest group leans left on housing and right on immigration.
Swing voters are pulled in opposite directions by issues among the ones they care about most. They lean one way on one issue and the other way on another, which registration alone hides, and they come from Republicans, independents and Democrats. In Maine's 2nd, 25,646 of the district's 77,543 swing voters lean left on housing and right on immigration, and in Nebraska's 2nd the same group is about a third of the swing voters.
The second-largest group is different in each district. In Maine's 2nd, it leans left on crime and right on healthcare. In Nebraska's 2nd, it leans left on education and right on healthcare. Here is what each of these groups wants.
- Left on housing, right on immigration, the largest group in both districts. They want housing treated as an affordability problem, with tenants kept stable and far more homes built. On immigration, they want the border secured and the law enforced, with legal immigration kept open to those who follow the rules.
- Left on crime, right on healthcare, the second-largest group in Maine's 2nd. They want violence prevention and mental-health response funded, and police held to a high standard while kept on serious crime. On healthcare, they want lower costs through competition and choice, with people who have pre-existing conditions protected.
- Left on education, right on healthcare, the second-largest group in Nebraska's 2nd. They put strong neighborhood schools first, with teachers paid well, tutoring funded and parents' concerns taken seriously. On healthcare, they also want lower costs through competition and choice, with people who have pre-existing conditions protected.
Inside Elections moved both races on October 15 and now rates both Lean, left in Nebraska and right in Maine. In Maine's 2nd, Matthew Dunlap faces Paul LePage, with Jared Golden not running again. In Nebraska's 2nd, Denise Powell faces Brinker Harding, with Don Bacon retiring. Separately from where any voter stands, PharosGraph ranks the issues in each race every week by how much weight they carry with that race's voters. Healthcare ranks third in Maine's 2nd and second in Nebraska's 2nd in PharosGraph's read of the races on October 22, and it has been in the top three in both every week since late August. Immigration and housing rank lower.
Age tracks the split. The group that leans left on housing and right on immigration is the youngest of the five named groups in both districts, with a mean age in the mid 40s in Maine's 2nd and close to 41 in Nebraska's 2nd. The group that leans the opposite way, left on immigration and right on housing, is the oldest, around 70 in Maine's 2nd.
Swing voters are most concentrated in the north and the interior of Maine's 2nd. In Piscataquis County and Somerset County, close to a quarter of voters are swing voters, and in Aroostook County and Washington County more than one in five are, against about one in six across the district. The share is lowest in Hancock County and in the district's part of Kennebec County. In Nebraska's 2nd, swing voters are most concentrated on the district's southwestern edge, at about one voter in five in Gretna and Springfield and about one in six in the surrounding part of Sarpy County, against about one in eight across the district.
The Swing Voter audience finds the voters pulled both ways in each district. Layering an issue audience on top is precision messaging: it tells a campaign which message fits each group of those voters, so it can tailor by district and voter by voter within each district. In both seats, a message on housing costs and border enforcement fits the largest group, and one on healthcare costs fits the second-largest group. PharosGraph ranks these audiences weekly and refreshes them monthly, and the Swing Voter audience, the position bands on immigration, crime, education and healthcare, and the Persuade and GOTV audiences for both races are available now with L2 DataMapping and in LiveRamp. Campaigns and issue groups should reach these voters before Maine's in-person absentee voting ends on October 29.