RaceScape · 2026 R Primary · Maine Gov

Maine Governor · Ben Midgley

Outsider businessman (ex-Planet Fitness, Crunch) with the Ann LePage endorsement, running fourth in a crowded ranked-choice primary. Insurgent math: lock the small LePage-wing base, then grow past it on cost-of-living and jobs to win the second-choice rankings.

ZIP5 resolution · Deep underdog (~6%, 4th) · ranked-choice primary

Snapshot

ZIPs

222K

GOP-likely

35/65

GOTV / Persuade

Recommended spend split

GOTV 35% Persuade 65%

The play

GOTV Mobilize the base

32 ZIPs · 76,610 GOP-likely

Lead issue

Backing the LePage Agenda: Public Safety and Parental Rights

His committed base of rural and working-class LePage-wing conservatives across the Portland-Auburn and Bangor markets where the outsider profile fits best (Turner, Bowdoin, Lebanon, Eliot, Standish).

Persuade Grow the coalition

48 ZIPs · 145,236 GOP-likely

Lead issue

Cost of Living and Jobs for Rural Maine

Movable, not-yet-committed conservatives in the suburban and exurban rings of greater Portland, Lewiston-Auburn, and Bangor (Scarborough, Kennebunk, Gardiner, Lisbon Falls) who are open to an outsider and available as a second choice.

Lead with this

Cost of Living and Jobs, from a Builder Not a Politician. Affordability is the top issue for roughly three in four Maine voters, and the one message that travels from Midgley's small base to the much larger movable middle. His credential is real and rare in this field: he built companies and created roughly 15,000 jobs while his rivals built political careers. End every spot with the second-choice ask.

Don't take the bait

Don't try to out-establishment Bobby Charles or fight on his national-security turf, which only raises the front-runner. Don't burn the short runway on attacks against a 72% favorite Midgley can't pass on first-choice votes alone. The realistic path is second-choice consolidation, which rewards staying relentlessly positive and acceptable to other candidates' voters.

Filter by county

← Show all counties

Top ZIPs · ranked by fit index

Related Scape

Source: PharosGraph Audience Intelligence pipeline. Neighborhood audience built from demographic fit across the Republican-likely primary electorate, refreshed weekly, scoped to voters likely to turn out. Standings anchored to public fundamentals (markets, money, endorsements, name recognition). Fit index = demographic alignment vs the statewide average (1.00 = average). Audience rolls up to ZIP5 for digital, direct mail, connected TV, and digital-out-of-home buys.