Why these voters, and why now
Three of the tax measures on California's ballot ask who pays, and on all three the cost that weighs most on a voter lines up with the side that voter leans toward. Two of the propositions tax the wealthiest. Proposition 40 is a one-time tax of five percent on the assets of about 200 billionaires, mostly to fund healthcare, and Proposition 3 makes the high-earner income tax that dates from 2012 permanent. The third goes the other way. Proposition 43 makes new local taxes harder to pass by requiring a two-thirds vote for a special tax that citizens put on the ballot.
California voters for whom housing costs weigh most lean toward the billionaire tax, with 51 percent in support and 39 percent opposed. Voters for whom property taxes weigh most lean against it by more than two to one, with 65 percent opposed and 25 percent in support. Proposition 3 splits the two groups the same way, and Proposition 43 splits them in reverse. The Support and Oppose audiences alone find the voters already leaning each way. Layering on the cost driver audiences picks out a slice of each side that a campaign can reach with a message about the cost that weighs on it most. Ballots went out by October 5, and vote centers open October 24 in Voter's Choice Act counties.
Costs lead the governor race too. On PharosGraph's weekly ranking of the issues in that race, cost of living and inflation ranks first and housing affordability and homelessness ranks second. The three measures put a price on that debate.
Los Angeles County holds the most voters in both groups, including 41 percent of the voters for whom housing costs weigh most who lean toward Proposition 40. Voters for whom property taxes weigh most make up their largest share of the electorate in Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.
Statewide, about four in ten voters lean toward Proposition 40 and half lean against it. Within each side sit large slices defined by cost. Of the voters leaning toward the tax, 3,465,640 are voters for whom housing costs weigh most, and of those leaning against it, 1,142,082 are voters for whom property taxes weigh most.
Those slices are what make precision messaging possible. The Support and Oppose audiences alone give a campaign every voter already leaning its way on a measure. Layering on the cost driver audiences tells it which cost to talk about with each slice of those voters: housing costs with one, the property tax bill with the other. Instead of one message for a whole side, a campaign can send the voters in each slice a message about the cost that weighs on them most. Campaigns and issue groups on any of the three measures should reach these voters before vote centers open on October 24. PharosGraph ranks these audiences weekly and refreshes them monthly, so a campaign activating now reaches this fall's voters. The Support and Oppose audiences for all three measures and the Cost of Living Main Driver audiences are available now through L2 DataMapping and in LiveRamp.