California · 2026 ballot measures
California · Proposition 40 · 2026

19.8 million California voters, mapped by where they're likely to stand on Prop 40

19,831,346 California voters are scored on Proposition 40, 8,743,463 in the Support audience and 11,087,883 in the Oppose audience. Californians vote on Proposition 40 on November 3, 2026.

California · Proposition 40, Billionaire Tax Data week of September 21, 2026
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What you are looking at

Two PharosGraph audiences for the same measure: 8,743,463 California voters likely to support the billionaire tax measure and 11,087,883 likely to oppose it. Every voter scored on the measure is in exactly one. One dot per 4,000 voters. The map draws 8,743,446 and 11,087,866; 34 sit in block groups with no boundary on file.

How it is built

Membership comes from the delivered audience files, one voter at a time. Who is in each is modeled from issue salience and how the measure is framed, and refreshed monthly. It is a modeled position, not local polling or a forecast of the vote. Dots are placed at random within each voter's census block group, so they show where each audience is concentrated, not where anyone lives.

Two audiences on one measure

Every California voter PharosGraph scores on Proposition 40, the billionaire tax measure, falls into exactly one of two audiences, Support or Oppose, so the map shows every scored voter at once.

Both audiences reach all 58 counties, and Los Angeles County is the largest for each. It holds 25.4 percent of all voters scored but 34.3 percent of the Support audience and 18.4 percent of the Oppose audience, meaning Support leans toward Los Angeles and Oppose is spread more widely.

Outside Los Angeles the two audiences separate. San Diego, Alameda, San Bernardino and Santa Clara are next for Support, and Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino are next for Oppose, meaning each audience needs its own media plan outside the largest county.

The Support audience is the larger of the two in 15 of the 58 counties, including Los Angeles, Alameda and San Francisco, and the Oppose audience is the larger in the other 43. The 15 hold 39.4 percent of all voters scored.

The voters on this map are two PharosGraph audiences

PharosGraph scores every registered voter in the country, one voter at a time, on the issues in the news. Those scores are published through L2 Data as audiences that campaigns and agencies activate in LiveRamp or L2 DataMapping, the same way as any other third-party segment.

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On this map
PharosGraph CA Proposition 40 Billionaire Tax Support8,743,463 California voters
PharosGraph CA Proposition 40 Billionaire Tax Oppose11,087,883 California voters
Related audiences to look for
The related measure
PharosGraph CA Proposition 43 Special Tax Vote Threshold Support California voters likely to support the two-thirds vote rule for special taxes.
PharosGraph CA Proposition 43 Special Tax Vote Threshold Oppose California voters likely to oppose the two-thirds vote rule for special taxes.
Voters focused on taxes
PharosGraph Taxes and Property Tax Relief Top 10 Percent Salience Voters in the top 10 percent nationally for focus on taxes and property tax relief.
PharosGraph Taxes and Property Tax Relief 10 to 20 Percent Salience The next band: voters between the top 10 and top 20 percent nationally.
PharosGraph Taxes and Property Tax Relief 20 to 40 Percent Salience The third band: voters between the top 20 and top 40 percent nationally.
The cost behind it
PharosGraph Cost of Living Driven by Property Taxes Voters whose cost of living concern is driven mainly by property taxes.
Where voters stand on taxes
PharosGraph Taxes Progressive Voters who hold a progressive position on taxes.
PharosGraph Taxes Leans Progressive Voters leaning progressive on taxes, whose position isn't fixed.
PharosGraph Taxes Centrist Voters who hold a centrist position on taxes.
PharosGraph Taxes Leans Conservative Voters leaning conservative on taxes, whose position isn't fixed.
PharosGraph Taxes Conservative Voters who hold a conservative position on taxes.
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